This new phase of heightened tensions has increased risk around the
Persian Gulf states (UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia), amplifying geopolitical
uncertainty and market sensitivity.
Oil: the primary transmission channel of escalation
At the core of the escalation’s macroeconomic impact is the
oil market. Crude oil prices have risen and reacted to regional developments,
mirroring the moves observed during the strikes in June 2025.
A prolonged oil shock acts as a stagflationary
impulse — driving higher inflation expectations, tightening financial
conditions, and slowing global growth. Net oil-importing economies in Asia and
Europe are among the most exposed, as higher energy prices raise both
external-balance vulnerabilities and inflation risks.
The impact of escalation is magnified by the prospect of
supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil
shipments, has been halted due to aerial strikes, increasing the cost of supply
across markets. At the same time, Iran’s oil sales— primarily flows
to China— are likely to be shut down. In this
environment, OPEC+’s planned output increases and regional pipeline supplies
are insufficient to offset the lost supply, raising
the probability of sharper price swings.
From a cross-asset perspective, gold is confirmed as a
structural diversifier, and more generally, commodities and commodity
currencies are favored.
Against this backdrop, U.S. assets should remain relatively attractive.
Emerging markets will see both winners and losers: oil importers are the
most vulnerable, while commodity exporters could benefit.
Military escalation in the Middle East is shaping a new
market regime, with risk transmitted primarily through the energy
channel—affecting inflation dynamics, interest-rate expectations, and global
growth. The key variable remains the duration of oil-supply risk: the longer
the likelihood of disruption persists, the greater the volatility and
macroeconomic strain.
Experts
at Amundi Investment Institute, in the “Implications of US-Israel strikes on Iran”
research paper have outlined the war’s impacts on the macroeconomic and
investment environment, as well as the outlook for investment markets under
these conditions and the new opportunities that may emerge.
About Amundi Investment
Institute
The Amundi Investment
Institute was established to enhance strategic dialogue with clients and
strengthen Amundi’s leadership in economic and financial research. It
produces analysis on economic and market developments, including their
implications for investors. The goal of the Investment Institute is to help
clients navigate an increasingly complex and rapidly changing world.
About
Amundi-Acba Asset Management
Amundi-Acba
Asset Management was founded in 2013. The company manages three mandatory
pension funds having about 785.8 billion
assets under management as of February 28th, 2026.
The
company's shareholders are the French Amundi, Europe's leading Asset Manager
with about 2.38 trillion Euros AUM, as of December 31st, 2025 and
Acba Bank, one of the largest financial institutions in Armenia, represented
throughout the country with 66 branches.
